On Draft Day, It's Pick Wisely or Go Home
General managers give personality tests. They hold individual workouts and measure players. But there is no comparison between watching a player and competing against him.
There are skills that are nearly impossible to evaluate from the stands. How does a player react when you shade him to the left? Will he overreach and make a bad play after a missed shot?
Out on the perimeter, I’ve played with guys who would grab your wrist, pull you in one direction, and cut backdoor for a layup while you were off balance. In the post, I would often bump a guy going through the middle, then anticipate his countermove to the baseline. When I beat him to that spot, he would either travel or take an off-balance shot. Those are the types of plays that are difficult to evaluate because certain subtleties aren’t visible from the stands.
When I started evaluating players for the N.B.A. draft, which will be conducted Thursday, I realized I was separating them into the guys I’d want on my team and the guys I’d hate to play with.
Go to any gym in the country and one rule is the same: win and stay on. So being picked up for games becomes a rite of passage.
I remember a summer night at DeMatha every bit as clearly as I remember my first collegiate game. Jerry Stackhouse picked me first over two big men in the Atlantic Coast Conference. I knew he picked me only because I wasn’t going to take the shots he wanted, but I was still so excited I spent the game running around like Anderson Varejão with a buzz cut and a Red Bull.
In that spirit, these are the guys I’d pick first if the gym were packed and there were an hour wait to play again if we lost.
ACIE LAW IV, GUARD, TEXAS A&M When we were preparing to play Texas A&M in the N.C.A.A. tournament, the scouting report pointed out an amazing statistic: In the last two minutes of close basketball games, Law outscored the entire opposing team. But it wasn’t until we played him that I understood what that statistic meant. For most of the game, Law was content to set up his teammates, trying to get everyone involved. Coming down the stretch in the second half, he went for the jugular and ran off a couple of quick baskets to put us away. Say what you want about his skills or his quickness; if you have to win a game, you want this kid on the court.
GLEN DAVIS, FORWARD, LOUISIANA STATE I can’t understand how Glen Davis, below, has dropped so far down most draft boards. He has unbelievable feet and is a polished offensive player. What’s more, he is an engaging personality from a marketing standpoint and a teammate’s perspective. He’ll be a fan favorite. I would be completely fine with my favorite team, the Wizards, taking him with the 16th choice in the draft. Of course, front-office executives are worried about his weight, so he may fall to the second round. I’d be even happier if the Wizards could grab him there.
JEFF GREEN, FORWARD, GEORGETOWN In the mold of Scottie Pippen or Lamar Odom, Jeff Green can do it all. Almost. In the Georgetown summer league this past year, I found myself facing Jeff in a tip to start the game. Knowing he would almost certainly win a fair jump, I leaned against his hip with my left forearm on the way up. The result was that he flailed at the ball, and I calmly tipped it back to my point guard. The game later went to overtime. As we stepped up for the second tip, Jeff looked at the referee and said, “Watch Steve, he cheats on the tip.” The referee looked at him incredulously and I said, “Maybe I’m just more athletic than you, Jeff.” I won that tip, too.
A player with his passing ability should be fine as long as he has some talent around him, and this past year at Georgetown, he showed signs of turning into a player who wanted to take big shots down the stretch. If he turns into that guy, watch out. Either way, he makes you better with his versatility.
DEMETRIS NICHOLS, FORWARD, SYRACUSE Demetris is a perfect example of a guy being overlooked because executives try to assemble talent, not a basketball team. The officials who run Team USA now realize they can’t just toss out a group of All-Stars and win overseas. Good N.B.A. teams are built the same way. In a game where there are five players and one ball, role players are at a premium. Just because Nichols is not adept at creating his own shot doesn’t mean he won’t be a valuable basketball player. He uses screens superbly, just like Richard Hamilton or Reggie Miller, and isn’t afraid to take (and make) big shots.
Shooters are at a premium in the league. Teams are stockpiling shooters; look at Houston’s pickup of Steve Novak. The difference between Nichols and Novak? Novak can’t guard driftwood (we played together on a team the National Invitation Tournament sent to Europe). Nichols is a long 6-foot-8 player capable of guarding a power forward or a shooting forward.
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As a player who has always had a little more desire than talent, I take pride in playing basketball the right way. There’s nothing worse than playing pickup games with a talented point guard who insists on taking off-balance 3-pointers, or a physical specimen in the post who just isn’t hungry for rebounds. In that spirit, the following players will either be out of the league in five years, or be signed by the Knicks to franchise-debilitating contracts.
JOSH MCROBERTS, FORWARD, DUKE One of my favorite tests of a player’s mental makeup is to give him an open shot in a pressure situation. Acie Law or Kevin Durant will stick a dagger in the opposition. Most players will take the open shot, make or miss, without thinking too hard about it. McRoberts, above, is one of those guys who lets the situation get into his head and hesitates. You can almost see him thinking, Why are they leaving me open? BRANDAN WRIGHT, FORWARD, NORTH CAROLINA Forecasting Wright’s career is a tough call. He has the talent to be good. When I guarded him in a game in Chapel Hill, he displayed great touch around the basket and an effective spin move, and he dropped in hook shots like a kid tossing pennies in a wishing well.
Here’s the catch. People are rating him the third-best player in the draft. But when we played North Carolina, we considered him the third-biggest threat on the team. We were more worried about Tywon Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough. Wright is an awful shooter and ball handler. We didn’t bother to chase him outside eight feet, allowing his defender to play off him and sag into the lane.
It’s not that I don’t think he’ll be a contributor down the road for somebody. It’s just that in this draft, a top-five pick has to be better than a complementary player.
SEAN WILLIAMS, CENTER, BOSTON COLLEGE Three years ago when we played Boston College, our game plan was not to guard Sean Williams. We wanted to use his defender to help against Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. The Eagles finally made an adjustment and started cutting him toward the basket, and he made a dunk coming down the lane. But I don’t care how many shots a guy can block. If he doesn’t need to be guarded outside two feet, under no conditions would I spend a first-round pick on him.
DARRYL WATKINS, CENTER, SYRACUSE He seems to be a workout wonder, moving up on many draft boards. Watkins certainly passes the eyeball test, but I can’t see him as a productive player. Since when do a handful of good workouts outweigh four years of underachieving? I thought he played lackadaisically at Syracuse and didn’t have an offensive game. Frankly, I’d rather see my team draft another European that no one has heard of.
Well, there it is. There are some guys who play the right way, and some who are talented enigmas. Pick at your own peril — and, while you’re at it, Stackhouse wouldn’t be a bad free-agent signing, either.
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