Taking shape
The NBA has released its list of early-entry candidates for the draft, and that means it's time to crunch some numbers.
First and most important is that over the past three drafts, almost exactly half (150 out of 298) of the players who originally applied for early entry withdrew their names before the draft. So before the gatekeepers of college basketball wring their hands, gnash their teeth and wail about the unfairness of it all, let's put in perspective what the numbers tell us.
The total number of players on this year's early-entry list is 84, the fewest since 2003. In both 2006 and 2004, 94 players requested early entry. In 2005, a record 110 candidates submitted their names. There are two main reasons for the shrinking numbers.
One, the collective bargaining agreement signed in July 2005 required that players be 19 years old and one year removed from the graduation of their high school class before becoming eligible for the draft. That requirement effectively ended the movement of players into the NBA directly from high school. In 2005, the final year high school seniors were eligible to enter the draft, 11 high school seniors were eligible to be picked and nine of those were drafted.
Two, the NBA and players' union agreed that international players would be allowed to withdraw from the draft only twice after becoming early-entry candidates. Since international players cannot apply for early entry until the calendar year of their 19th birthday, these two rule changes combined to cut by half the number of times an international player could withdraw.
With no high school players and the international count down to 25, the fewest since 2002, the total number of players applying has been reduced.
Many college stars stay in school
At first glance, the list of early-entry candidates has the usual number of obvious lottery picks and a handful of players who are very likely to be first-round picks. Then there are several college juniors who know in their hearts they are not going to stay in the draft, but would surely love to score an invitation to the NBA Pre-Draft Camp (slated for Orlando from May 29-June 4), where they can begin filling their audition tape for next season.
But before we analyze the early-entry list, let's take a minute to talk about who isn't on it. The absence of some marquee names means college basketball fans have plenty of reason to cheer.
Point guards Darren Collison (UCLA), Tywon Lawson (North Carolina), D.J. Augustin (Texas) and Ronald Steele (Alabama) will play college basketball next season. So will super shooters Chris Lofton (Tennessee) and Drew Neitzel (Michigan State); electric wing players Chase Budinger (Arizona), Malik Hairston (Oregon) and Richard Roby (Colorado); and post monsters Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina), D.J. White (Indiana) and Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut).
Put those together with the dozen or so standout players who will withdraw from the early-entry list before the draft, add a few superb freshmen and you have a ready-made list of spectacular talents who will keep the college game compelling next season.
The release of the official early-entry list helps to frame the June 28 draft in various ways. While I expect that nearly half of the early-entry candidates will withdraw before the June 18 deadline, a few characteristics of the draft are now becoming clear.
• The early portion of the lottery is taking shape. In addition to headliners Greg Oden of Ohio State and Kevin Durant of Texas, it seems all but certain that Brandan Wright of North Carolina, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah of Florida and Julian Wright of Kansas will help populate the lottery, which consists of 14 picks. Despite the volatility inherent in just about every draft, it seems improbable that any of these "Magnificent Seven" will fall out of the lottery.
• The presence of seniors in the first round will likely be a little less than the past two seasons, due to the large and talented group of underclassmen expected to remain in the draft. The only seniors who seem certain to be first-round picks are Al Thornton of Florida State and Acie Law of Texas A&M. Other seniors who have a good chance of cracking the first round are Alando Tucker of Wisconsin, Morris Almond of Rice and Aaron Gray of Pittsburgh. Among the seniors who have some work to do to convince GMs they belong in the first round are Nick Fazekas of Nevada and Jared Dudley of Boston College. In 2006, eight seniors were drafted in the first round; in 2005, it was 10. Barring a barrage of unexpected withdrawals by underclassmen, seniors will have a hard time approaching those numbers this year.
• The international impact on this draft is also likely to be more muted than in recent years. Forward Yi Jianlian of the Guandong Southern Tigers of China is likely to be a lottery selection, Marco Belinelli of Climamio Bologna of Italy and ACB (Spanish League) stars Tiago Splitter of Tau Ceramica and Rudy Fernandez of DKV Joventut look to be near locks for the first round. After that, big men Ante Tomic of KK Zagreb in Croatia and Marc Gasol, the younger brother of the Memphis Grizzlies' Pau Gasol who plays for Akasvayu Girona in Spain, have the best chance to draw interest in the first 30 picks.
Draft lottery looms
Now that the early-entry list has been revealed, the next key date for draft mavens is May 22, when the draft lottery will be held in Secaucus, N.J. It's a huge night for all the lottery teams, who have visions of Oden or Durant dancing in their heads.
A couple of teams already know that the 2007 draft better have a dramatic impact on their franchises. These are the teams with multiple first-round picks.
The Philadelphia 76ers are the kings of the draft at the moment, at least until another team earns the No. 1 pick. Philadelphia has the 21st and 30th overall picks in addition to a lottery pick. With a core group of Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert and Kyle Korver in the fold, a strong draft could catapult the 76ers right back into playoff contention next season.
The Charlotte Bobcats (lottery pick and No. 22) have two picks in the first round, as does Detroit (15 and 27). Phoenix has two first-round picks in hand (24 and 29), but could make it a huge night if the Atlanta Hawks' lottery selection doesn't fall in the top three picks. If it doesn't, Atlanta must relinquish the pick to Phoenix as part of the sign-and-trade that sent Joe Johnson to the Hawks.
The Chicago Bulls have the right to swap first-round positions with the Knicks as one condition of the Eddy Curry trade, a right they are likely to exercise this year. Chicago's current position is 23rd overall, while the Knicks' position will be determined in the lottery.
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