The first athlete drafted by the pros from the University of North Carolina in 2009 might not be Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Elllington or Hakeem Nicks.
A more likely choice is Tar Heels baseball star Dustin Ackley.
When the Major League Baseball Draft is staged next spring, the rising junior first baseman from Walnut Cove looms as a first-round lock and possibly even No. 1 overall.
"It's certainly not out of the question,"
says Carolina coach Mike Fox. "Dustin is a hitter's hitter. Everything about him leads you to think he's just going to keep improving with age."
For opposing pitchers, the vision of an improved Ackley has to be scary. Through two seasons on teams that reached the College World Series, the left-handed hitter has batted over .400 while striking out only 48 times in roughly 140 games.
"It's at the point now that I'm surprised when he doesn't make contact every time he swings,"
Fox said. "His judgment on pitches is about as solid as you can find."
The success Ackley has achieved has been a surprise, even to himself. As a high school player at South Stokes (Class 1-A) for three years and North Forsyth (4-A) for one, he was not hotly recruited by most of the traditionally successful college programs.
The son of a former player in the Boston Red Sox minor league organization, he caught Fox's attention early but was marginally surprised when scholarship help was extended.
"I went into my senior season of high school thinking that I was pretty much of a long shot to get a good offer to a school like Carolina,"
he said. "I had been playing at a smaller-classification school at South Stokes, and I didn't know what to expect when I transferred to North Forsyth, which is bigger and plays in a tougher division."
It turned out that the jump had almost no impact on Ackley's production while elevating his collegiate stock. Clemson and a couple of other ACC schools made late approaches. By then, Ackley had settled on the Tar Heels.
"I wanted to go to Carolina from the start, and now I know it's the best thing that could have happened to me,"
he said.
Now more changes may be on the way. Although Ackley has developed into a quality first baseman, he could spend time next season in the outfield or possibly even at second base.
"It's something I think is probably worth a look if it can be done without hurting the team,"
Fox said. "Dustin's future in the pros is something we want to take into account as much as possible within reason. It may turn out that they see him more as an outfielder, which is really his natural position."
At 6 feet 1 and about 180 pounds, Ackley is not a prototypical power-hitting first baseman, although he did hit three homers in the '07 College World Series and had 10 overall with 74 RBIs as a freshman.
Batting leadoff in '08, he had seven homers but rarely went for the fences.
Given more size and a more aggressive swing, there's a chance he could become a bona fide slugger. But that also comes with a possible downside. Pure hitters don't always adjust smoothly to a power priority. Ackley's batting style is much more akin to George Brett than, say, Ryan Howard.
"I sure don't want to do anything that distracts from what Dustin does so well naturally,"
Fox said. "Hitters that good don't come along very often at all, and it can be a mistake to tinker with them a lot when they do."
Ackley says he's more than willing to do anything that will help the team get back to Omaha for what would be a fourth straight season and leave in '09 with the championship.
"I'm not looking past anything except getting back there and getting another shot at it,"
he said. "Obviously, I want to get drafted, and my goal always has been the majors. But if I can help by doing something new, I'm right there. Every guy on this team is that way."
