The ACC’s best hope for a national championship basketball contender in 2008-09 hinges on a series of heartbreaks for two or three underclassmen at North Carolina.
If there is a perfect storm of pre-NBA draft disappointments for rising Carolina junior guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington plus senior wingman Danny Green and they all stay in school, the Tar Heels are a lock to begin the new season as the nation’s No. 1 ranked team.
All have declared for draft consideration but have until 5 p.m. June 16 to withdraw and retain their collegiate eligibility. The draft will be on June 26.
Lawson, who rates among the nation’s quickest and most effective point guards when in sound health, is the key figure. If he returns — even without Ellington and Green — Carolina would start the season as a favorite to reach the Final Four in Detroit.
Without Lawson, the Heels slip. Without all three, they don’t even have the league’s best team on paper despite the fact that national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough will be back for a fourth season in the program.
The league favorite then would be still-flawed Duke, or possibly even Wake Forest.
Based on player availability as of today — meaning all players declared for the draft remain in it — the ACC would remain an above-average league. But only that. Three to five teams have top-25 profiles. The rest are borderline NCAA Tournament hopefuls or far below, and it’s important to take into account that there will be the usual amount of off-season attrition, meaning at least four or five projected league starters will either leave school, transfer or flunk out academically.
Here’s the outlook, based on the long assumption that everyone stays in the draft and no one leaves.
All-ACC first and second teams
First team: Tyler Hansbrough, UNC; Tyrese Rice, Boston College; A.D. Vassallo, Virginia Tech; Gerald Henderson, Duke; Greivis Vasquez, Maryland.
Second team: Jack McClinton, Miami; K.C. Rivers, Clemson; Jeff Teague, Wake Forest; Toney Douglas, Florida State; Kyle Singler, Duke.
Tudor’s Projected ACC 2008-09 season
Projected starters based on currently eligible players and signees and — yes, a big one — assuming all declared underclassmen remain in the NBA draft.
1. DUKE
2007-08 record: 13-3, 28-6
Projected starters: Lance Thomas, Jr., F; Kyle Singler, So., F; Gerald Henderson, Jr., W; Jon Scheyer, Jr., W; Greg Paulus, Sr., G.
Lack of size and questionable depth will remain central issues for the Blue Devils. A healthy Brian Zoubek, who is recovering from a second foot surgery, would help on both fronts. Recruit Olek Czyz (6-7, 235) may have to contribute some minutes, although fellow frosh Elliott Williams, a 6-4 wingman, probably has more raw talent.
Overview: The perimeter should be among the nation’s best and Paulus’ experience at the point will be important. Although plenty solid, the Devils still don’t have their old look of a strong national championship contender.
2. NORTH CAROLINA
2007-08 record: 14-2, 36-3
Projected starters: Tyler Hansbrough, Sr. F; Deon Thompson, Jr., F; Marcus Ginyard, Sr., W; Will Graves, So., W; Bobby Frasor, Jr., G.
Everything hinges on the status of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The popular assumption is that only Lawson is likely to stay in the NBA draft pool, but no one can know for sure until announcements are made. The key man obviously is Frasor, who is returning from knee surgery, and may need to work 30 or more minutes per game at the point. Perimeter recruits Ed Davis and Larry Drew arrive with reputations as accurate shooters.
Overview: The offensive pace will change unless Lawson returns to push the tempo. But with Hansbrough surrounded by a wealth of size and experience inside, the Heels will remain a top-15 team.
3. WAKE FOREST
2007-08 record: 7-9, 17-13
Projected starters: Chas McFarland, Jr., C; James Johnson, So., F; L.D. Williams, Jr., W; Jeff Teague, So, G.; Ishmael Smith, Jr., G.
With recruits Al-Farouq Aminu (6-8), Ty Walker (7-0) and Tony Woods (6-10) joining the mix, Dino Gaudio will have several more frontcourt personnel options by mid to late season, meaning the fast-improving McFarland won’t face such a heavy workload and Johnson gets more freedom to roam. Smith and Teague are too quick for some ACC teams to contain.
Overview: The three-season NCAA Tournament drought should end as the Deacons make a jump from the league’s second division into regular-season contention. There’s no reason Wake shouldn’t be top-25 team by season’s end.
4. MIAMI
2007-08 record: 8-8, 23-11
Projected starters: Dwayne Collins, Jr., F; Cyrus McGowan, Jr. F; Jack McClinton, Sr., W; James Dews, Jr., G; Lance Hurdle, Sr., G.
McGowan, a physical 6-9 transfer, will help offset the loss of Anthony King and should provide Collins with sufficient rebounding help, and seniors Brian Asbury and Jimmy Graham will play regularly even if they don’t start. It’s possible that Winston-Salem recruit Reginald Johnson (6-9, 280) can get up to speed fast enough to increase the inside depth. The perimeter is impressive and deep.
Overview: The Hurricanes will get a lot of preseason top-25 votes and Frank Haith clearly has upgraded the program. Even so, there’s still not a consistent homecourt advantage.
5. VIRGINIA TECH
2007-08 record: 9-7, 21-14
Projected starters: Jeff Allen, So., F; Lewis Witcher, Jr., F; A.D. Vassallo, Sr., W; J.T. Thompson, So., W; Malcolm Delaney, So., G.
If this turns out to be the lineup Seth Greenberg settles on, he’ll likely have the league’s quickest and most productive sixth man in sophomore guard Hank Thorns. If the 5-9 Thorns keeps Thompson (6-6) on the bench, the Hokies could have match-up problems against bigger ACC foes on the perimeter. But overall, depth is beginning to work in Greenberg’s favor and signee Vic Davila (6-9, 240) has the look of another Allen.
Overview: Vassallo is a threat to lead the league in scoring and the Hokies are the best dark-horse candidate among the 12 teams. Their ceiling is high.
6. CLEMSON
2007-08 record: 10-6, 24-10
Projected starters: Trevor Booker, Jr., F; Raymond Sykes, Sr., F; K.C. Rivers, Sr., W; Demontez Stitt, So., G; Terrence Oglesby, So., G.
Will the Tigers have enough leadership without Cliff Hammonds and James Mays around to provide a settling presence on the court and in the locker room? If so, there may not be a big drop in the win total. If not, Clemson could be the N.C. State of ‘08-’09. Rivers and Oglesby will combine to launch a barrage of 3-point shots.
Overview: With less size and quickness, Oliver Purnell will place heavy emphasis on half-court defense and, of course, improved free-throw shooting. It’s probably back to the NCAA bubble.
7. GEORGIA TECH
2007-08 record: 7-9, 15-17
Projected starters: Gani Lawal, So., F; Zach Peacock, Jr., F; D’Andre Bell, Sr., W; Maurice Miller, So, G.; Lewis Clinch, Sr., G.
It’ll help that much-injured Ra’Sean Dickey (6-10, 250) will be back for a medical red-shirt season and there’s hope that 6-4 recruit Iman Shumpert could emerge as a poor man’s Javaris Crittenton. Clinch and Lawal, who combined to average less than 17 points per game, will be under immediate pressure to jump-start the offense.
Overview: There are still a lot of holes in the Yellow Jackets’ picture, and it’s not clear that Paul Hewitt can sign and keep enough talent to get the program back to where it was in 2004.
8. MARYLAND
2007-08 record: 8-8, 19-15
Projected starters: Jerome Burney, Jr., F; Braxton Dupree, So, F; Landon Milbourne, Jr., W; Eric Hayes, Jr., G.; Greivis Vasquez, Jr., G.
With James Gist and Bambale Osby in the ‘08 lineup, the Terps were barely able to outrebound opponents, and that was with the versatile Vasquez chipping in 5.7 per game. Burney and Dupree have decent size and some mobility, but the frontcourt looms as a long, trying adventure for Gary Williams in his 20th season at his alma mater.
Overview: Vasquez has the potential to be a one-man team. The problem is he may have to be.
9. N.C. STATE
2007-08 record: 4-12, 15-16
Projected starters: Brandon Costner, Jr., F; Ben McCauley, Sr., F; Courtney Fells, Sr., W; Julius Mays, Fr., G; Farnold Degand, Jr., G.
If J.J. Hickson exits the draft, the entire offensive equation will change. But unless that happens, the Wolfpack has to hope for Costner to revert to the productive scoring ways (16.8 ppg) of ‘06-’07. Either way, the addition of the 6-2 Mays should improve team quickness and provide some more scoring punch outside. The bench could be a plus, if Dennis Horner, Tracy Smith and Trevor Ferguson just make average off-season improvements.
Overview: The pressure is beginning to mount on Sidney Lowe as he enters a third season and there’s no question that a healthy Degand is the key on-court figure.
10. BOSTON COLLEGE
2007-08 record: 4-12, 14-17
Projected starters: Tyler Roche, Jr., F; Joe Trapani, So., F; Rakim Sanders, So., W; Corey Raji, So., W; Tyrese Rice, Sr., G.
Trapani, a 6-8 transfer from Vermont, will provide some size, but the Eagles will still be at a dangerous height disadvantage against almost every team in the league. Roche (6-7) and Raji (6-5) are active and eager, but Shamari Spears’ decision to transfer leaves Al Skinner without his best rebounder of ‘08.
Overview: While Rice’ offensive ingenuity will keep BC close is some games and there’s a good chance the team’s overall depth will increase, everything points to another struggle.
11. FLORIDA STATE
2007-08 record: 7-9, 19-15
Projected starters: Uche Echefu, Sr. F; Ryan Reid, Jr., F; Solomon Alabi, So., F; Toney Douglas, Sr., G.; Derwin Kitchen, Jr., G.
Duke, Maryland and Boston College could use some of the size that Leonard Hamilton gradually has stockpiled. This could be one of the biggest, and slowest, teams in the country. But Hamilton has few options to downsize in hopes of finding more quickness. Kitchen (6-4) has bounced from school to school but does project as a decent playmaker.
Overview: Other than Douglas, who produces points?
12. VIRGINIA
2007-08 record: 5-11. 17-16
Projected starters: Laurynas Mikalauskas, Sr., F; Mike Scott, So., F; Jeff Jones, So., W; Mamadi Diane, Sr., W; Sam Zeglinski, So., G.
Zeglinski was injured almost all of last season and likely will be reclassified as a red-shirt freshman before October. A 6-foot speedster when healthy, he’s the leader to take over the job Sean Singletary had forever. But it’s a mile-long stretch to assume this team can match last season’s 76.8 scoring average. Diane got 11.8 points but a lot of those were the result of defensive double-teaming on Singletary.
Overview: For all of Dave Leitao’s energy and optimism, the Cavaliers are drifting off course at a time when there doesn’t seem to be a Singletary or J.R. Reynolds on the horizon.
